**Persistent tropical moisture and typical late-summer conditions position 80–81°F as the leading market outcome for Miami’s daily minimum temperature on September 4, 2026.** Official National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s amid high humidity, dew points near 77–80°F, and southeast winds of 5–10 mph. Cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms—forecast with 50–70% chances—limit radiational cooling, keeping the minimum from dropping sharply. Historical climatology for early September shows average lows near 77°F, but the current pattern favors values clustered around 80°F, aligning with the 35% implied probability on 80–81°F and 25% on 82–83°F. The notable 24% weighting on 73°F or below reflects residual uncertainty from possible heavier overnight rain or model variability, while probabilities spread across higher bins capture upside risk from clearer skies or weaker storms. No significant cold-air intrusions or tropical systems are expected in the next 48 hours to alter this baseline. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs ahead of the date will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in the overnight minimum.