Skip to main content
icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Политика·Выход

Major US official out by May 31?

icon for Major US official out by May 31?
Политика·Выход

Major US official out by May 31?

мая 31

мая 31

26% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
26% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following a turbulent April 2026 marked by three high-profile Cabinet departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid abuse of power allegations, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem—trader consensus has shifted toward stability, pricing "No" major US official exit by May 31 at 74%. No confirmed resignations, firings, or credible rumors of additional Cabinet-level changes have emerged in the past two weeks, despite ongoing speculation about successors like deputies in affected agencies. This lull reflects administration efforts to steady leadership amid policy pressures, with historical Trump-era turnover patterns now tempered by recent quiet; upcoming confirmation hearings or executive actions could still influence odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,598
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following a turbulent April 2026 marked by three high-profile Cabinet departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid abuse of power allegations, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem—trader consensus has shifted toward stability, pricing "No" major US official exit by May 31 at 74%. No confirmed resignations, firings, or credible rumors of additional Cabinet-level changes have emerged in the past two weeks, despite ongoing speculation about successors like deputies in affected agencies. This lull reflects administration efforts to steady leadership amid policy pressures, with historical Trump-era turnover patterns now tempered by recent quiet; upcoming confirmation hearings or executive actions could still influence odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.

A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.

If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,598
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Major US official out by May 31?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 26% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 26¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 26%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Major US official out by May 31?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 27, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Major US official out by May 31?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Major US official out by May 31?» составляет 26% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 26%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Major US official out by May 31?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.