PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест выиграно
Следующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест выиграно
Либеральная партия (PL) 81%
REPUBLICANOS 11.0%
PSD 5.7%
MDB 4.7%
$253,943 Объем
$253,943 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Либеральная партия (PL)
81%
REPUBLICANOS
11%
PSD
6%
MDB
5%
UNIÃO
4%
ПТ
3%
ПОДЕМОС
2%
ПСБ
1%
NOVO
1%
PSDB
<1%
PP
<1%
PDT
<1%
Либеральная партия (PL) 81%
REPUBLICANOS 11.0%
PSD 5.7%
MDB 4.7%
$253,943 Объем
$253,943 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Либеральная партия (PL)
$242,655 Объем
81%
REPUBLICANOS
$1,075 Объем
11%
PSD
$1,046 Объем
6%
MDB
$1,007 Объем
5%
UNIÃO
$958 Объем
4%
ПТ
$1,040 Объем
3%
ПОДЕМОС
$1,156 Объем
2%
ПСБ
$1,071 Объем
1%
NOVO
$1,134 Объем
1%
PSDB
$1,023 Объем
<1%
PP
$935 Объем
<1%
PDT
$843 Объем
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$253,943Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$253,943Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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