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Политика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Политика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 48%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%

Polymarket

$364,080 Объем

Starmer - UK PM 48%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.0%

Polymarket

$364,080 Объем

Starmer - UK PM

$21,735 Объем

48%

Petro - Colombia President

$19,142 Объем

37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Объем

9%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,669 Объем

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Объем

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,024 Объем

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,995 Объем

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,986 Объем

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,549 Объем

1%

None before 2027

$19,097 Объем

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,236 Объем

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,365 Объем

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,713 Объем

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,028 Объем

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,174 Объем

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,720 Объем

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,545 Объем

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,388 Объем

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,234 Объем

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,374 Объем

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,205 Объем

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,900 Объем

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,305 Объем

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,251 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK local election setbacks and multiple ministerial resignations have elevated trader assessments of Starmer departing office before 2027, underscoring Labour Party strains following his 2024 victory. Colombia’s scheduled May 31 presidential vote and Petro’s constitutional ineligibility for reelection place him as the next most likely to exit by year-end, aligning with term limits rather than sudden removal. Lower probabilities for Díaz-Canel, Zelenskyy, and others reflect entrenched positions amid domestic or external pressures, while distant odds for Netanyahu, Erdoğan, and Xi capture limited near-term vulnerabilities based on institutional stability and historical patterns. These implied probabilities synthesize trader views on electoral cycles, approval trends, and procedural deadlines across varied political systems.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$364,080
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK local election setbacks and multiple ministerial resignations have elevated trader assessments of Starmer departing office before 2027, underscoring Labour Party strains following his 2024 victory. Colombia’s scheduled May 31 presidential vote and Petro’s constitutional ineligibility for reelection place him as the next most likely to exit by year-end, aligning with term limits rather than sudden removal. Lower probabilities for Díaz-Canel, Zelenskyy, and others reflect entrenched positions amid domestic or external pressures, while distant odds for Netanyahu, Erdoğan, and Xi capture limited near-term vulnerabilities based on institutional stability and historical patterns. These implied probabilities synthesize trader views on electoral cycles, approval trends, and procedural deadlines across varied political systems.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$364,080
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 24 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Starmer - UK PM» с 48%, за ним следует «Petro - Colombia President» с 37%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 48¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 48%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $364.1K с момента запуска рынка Apr 27, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)», просмотри 24 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — «Starmer - UK PM» с 48%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 48%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Petro - Colombia President» с 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.