Midway through May 2026, the absence of any triggering events—such as a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russian invasion of a NATO country—has solidified trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for "Nothing" by May 31. Ongoing diplomatic stalemates in US-Iran talks, stable oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, and no escalatory signals from Russia along NATO borders underscore the high barriers to these tail-risk outcomes. No regime shifts or extraterrestrial disclosures have materialized, with scheduled summits like Shangri-La Dialogue unlikely to catalyze resolutions, though late-breaking military or market shocks could alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Ничего
$84,802 Объем
$84,802 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Ничего
$84,802 Объем
$84,802 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, the absence of any triggering events—such as a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russian invasion of a NATO country—has solidified trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for "Nothing" by May 31. Ongoing diplomatic stalemates in US-Iran talks, stable oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, and no escalatory signals from Russia along NATO borders underscore the high barriers to these tail-risk outcomes. No regime shifts or extraterrestrial disclosures have materialized, with scheduled summits like Shangri-La Dialogue unlikely to catalyze resolutions, though late-breaking military or market shocks could alter odds.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Объем
$84,802Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, the absence of any triggering events—such as a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russian invasion of a NATO country—has solidified trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for "Nothing" by May 31. Ongoing diplomatic stalemates in US-Iran talks, stable oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, and no escalatory signals from Russia along NATO borders underscore the high barriers to these tail-risk outcomes. No regime shifts or extraterrestrial disclosures have materialized, with scheduled summits like Shangri-La Dialogue unlikely to catalyze resolutions, though late-breaking military or market shocks could alter odds.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Объем
$84,802Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Midway through May 2026, the absence of any triggering events—such as a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russian invasion of a NATO country—has solidified trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for "Nothing" by May 31. Ongoing diplomatic stalemates in US-Iran talks, stable oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, and no escalatory signals from Russia along NATO borders underscore the high barriers to these tail-risk outcomes. No regime shifts or extraterrestrial disclosures have materialized, with scheduled summits like Shangri-La Dialogue unlikely to catalyze resolutions, though late-breaking military or market shocks could alter odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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