New York’s 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76% of the vote in 2024 and enters the June 23 Democratic primary with a substantial fundraising and endorsement edge over challenger Michael Blake and several lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election Solid Democratic, underscoring limited Republican viability even if national conditions shift. Trader pricing at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with this structural advantage, though an unusually divisive primary outcome or late-cycle national wave remains the most plausible path to narrowing the margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-15
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-15
$23,469 Объем
$23,469 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$23,469 Объем
$23,469 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$11,738 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$11,731 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76% of the vote in 2024 and enters the June 23 Democratic primary with a substantial fundraising and endorsement edge over challenger Michael Blake and several lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election Solid Democratic, underscoring limited Republican viability even if national conditions shift. Trader pricing at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with this structural advantage, though an unusually divisive primary outcome or late-cycle national wave remains the most plausible path to narrowing the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$23,469Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76% of the vote in 2024 and enters the June 23 Democratic primary with a substantial fundraising and endorsement edge over challenger Michael Blake and several lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election Solid Democratic, underscoring limited Republican viability even if national conditions shift. Trader pricing at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with this structural advantage, though an unusually divisive primary outcome or late-cycle national wave remains the most plausible path to narrowing the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$23,469Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+27 partisan voting index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76% of the vote in 2024 and enters the June 23 Democratic primary with a substantial fundraising and endorsement edge over challenger Michael Blake and several lesser-known candidates. Forecasters across major outlets rate the general election Solid Democratic, underscoring limited Republican viability even if national conditions shift. Trader pricing at 94% for a Democratic winner aligns with this structural advantage, though an unusually divisive primary outcome or late-cycle national wave remains the most plausible path to narrowing the margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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