OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra, its first model to reach the “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, will be made available “soon” with restricted advanced capabilities for initial testers has driven strong near-term trader consensus. The update followed weeks of paused training after the July Hugging Face incident, with resumed frontier RL runs and new safeguards against cyber misuse now in place. This timing aligns with the 53.8% implied probability for a September 3 release and 29.9% for September 4, reflecting expectations that the company will move quickly once safety evaluations clear. Limited Daybreak Blue access and an accompanying system card are the key criteria traders are watching for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAstra от OpenAI выпущена...?
Astra от OpenAI выпущена...?
3 сентября 44.9%
2 сентября или раньше 8.0%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября 7%
4 сентября 4.0%
НОВОЕ
$25,652 Объем
НОВОЕ
$25,652 Объем
2 сент. 2026 г.
2 сентября или раньше
23%
3 сентября
54%
4 сентября
24%
5 сентября
24%
6 сентября
1%
7 сентября
3%
8 сентября
2%
9 сентября
2%
10 сентября
2%
11 сентября
1%
12 сентября
1%
13 сентября
3%
14 сентября
1%
15 сентября
2%
16 сентября
1%
17 сентября
1%
18 сентября
1%
19 сентября
1%
20 сентября
1%
21 сентября
1%
22 сентября
1%
23 сентября
1%
24 сентября
1%
25 сентября
3%
26 сентября
1%
27 сентября
3%
28 сентября
3%
29 сентября
1%
30 сентября
1%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября
7%
3 сентября 44.9%
2 сентября или раньше 8.0%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября 7%
4 сентября 4.0%
НОВОЕ
$25,652 Объем
НОВОЕ
$25,652 Объем
2 сент. 2026 г.
2 сентября или раньше
$1,356 Объем
23%
3 сентября
$1,415 Объем
54%
4 сентября
$1,117 Объем
24%
5 сентября
$688 Объем
24%
6 сентября
$607 Объем
1%
7 сентября
$520 Объем
3%
8 сентября
$520 Объем
2%
9 сентября
$520 Объем
2%
10 сентября
$440 Объем
2%
11 сентября
$733 Объем
1%
12 сентября
$733 Объем
1%
13 сентября
$657 Объем
3%
14 сентября
$766 Объем
1%
15 сентября
$1,185 Объем
2%
16 сентября
$855 Объем
1%
17 сентября
$855 Объем
1%
18 сентября
$755 Объем
1%
19 сентября
$755 Объем
1%
20 сентября
$855 Объем
1%
21 сентября
$1,015 Объем
1%
22 сентября
$755 Объем
1%
23 сентября
$712 Объем
1%
24 сентября
$1,511 Объем
1%
25 сентября
$712 Объем
3%
26 сентября
$712 Объем
1%
27 сентября
$1,433 Объем
3%
28 сентября
$712 Объем
3%
29 сентября
$755 Объем
1%
30 сентября
$765 Объем
1%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября
$1,239 Объем
7%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra, its first model to reach the “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, will be made available “soon” with restricted advanced capabilities for initial testers has driven strong near-term trader consensus. The update followed weeks of paused training after the July Hugging Face incident, with resumed frontier RL runs and new safeguards against cyber misuse now in place. This timing aligns with the 53.8% implied probability for a September 3 release and 29.9% for September 4, reflecting expectations that the company will move quickly once safety evaluations clear. Limited Daybreak Blue access and an accompanying system card are the key criteria traders are watching for resolution.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Объем
$25,652Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra, its first model to reach the “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, will be made available “soon” with restricted advanced capabilities for initial testers has driven strong near-term trader consensus. The update followed weeks of paused training after the July Hugging Face incident, with resumed frontier RL runs and new safeguards against cyber misuse now in place. This timing aligns with the 53.8% implied probability for a September 3 release and 29.9% for September 4, reflecting expectations that the company will move quickly once safety evaluations clear. Limited Daybreak Blue access and an accompanying system card are the key criteria traders are watching for resolution.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$25,652Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra, its first model to reach the “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, will be made available “soon” with restricted advanced capabilities for initial testers has driven strong near-term trader consensus. The update followed weeks of paused training after the July Hugging Face incident, with resumed frontier RL runs and new safeguards against cyber misuse now in place. This timing aligns with the 53.8% implied probability for a September 3 release and 29.9% for September 4, reflecting expectations that the company will move quickly once safety evaluations clear. Limited Daybreak Blue access and an accompanying system card are the key criteria traders are watching for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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