Recent caucus unity efforts in Penticton, B.C., and Poilievre’s January 2026 leadership review victory with 87% support underpin the 82.5% “No” odds on an exit by year-end. MPs emphasized national interest over internal divisions amid the U.S. trade conflict and affordability pressures, with no organized challenge or resignation signals emerging. Floor crossings and public infighting have occurred, and polls show the Conservatives trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals while Poilievre’s favorability sits at historic lows, yet the majority government timeline and absence of a clear successor reduce near-term removal pressure. Traders appear to view these factors as insufficient to force a leadership change before December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
18% вероятность
$158,672 Объем
$158,672 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
18% вероятность
$158,672 Объем
$158,672 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent caucus unity efforts in Penticton, B.C., and Poilievre’s January 2026 leadership review victory with 87% support underpin the 82.5% “No” odds on an exit by year-end. MPs emphasized national interest over internal divisions amid the U.S. trade conflict and affordability pressures, with no organized challenge or resignation signals emerging. Floor crossings and public infighting have occurred, and polls show the Conservatives trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals while Poilievre’s favorability sits at historic lows, yet the majority government timeline and absence of a clear successor reduce near-term removal pressure. Traders appear to view these factors as insufficient to force a leadership change before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET
Объем
$158,672Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent caucus unity efforts in Penticton, B.C., and Poilievre’s January 2026 leadership review victory with 87% support underpin the 82.5% “No” odds on an exit by year-end. MPs emphasized national interest over internal divisions amid the U.S. trade conflict and affordability pressures, with no organized challenge or resignation signals emerging. Floor crossings and public infighting have occurred, and polls show the Conservatives trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals while Poilievre’s favorability sits at historic lows, yet the majority government timeline and absence of a clear successor reduce near-term removal pressure. Traders appear to view these factors as insufficient to force a leadership change before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$158,672Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent caucus unity efforts in Penticton, B.C., and Poilievre’s January 2026 leadership review victory with 87% support underpin the 82.5% “No” odds on an exit by year-end. MPs emphasized national interest over internal divisions amid the U.S. trade conflict and affordability pressures, with no organized challenge or resignation signals emerging. Floor crossings and public infighting have occurred, and polls show the Conservatives trailing Mark Carney’s Liberals while Poilievre’s favorability sits at historic lows, yet the majority government timeline and absence of a clear successor reduce near-term removal pressure. Traders appear to view these factors as insufficient to force a leadership change before December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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