**The high probability assigned to "No" on H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act or SAVE America Act) being signed into law in 2026 reflects repeated Senate failures to advance the measure despite House passage and presidential pressure.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID at the polls, cleared the House in February 2026 on a 218–213 vote but has stalled in the Senate. Multiple cloture and amendment attempts—including as riders to DHS funding, the NDAA, and standalone measures—failed between March and August 2026, often falling short of 60 votes due to opposition from a handful of Republicans alongside Democrats. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated the votes do not exist to overcome the filibuster or alter rules before the November midterms, and the chamber recessed in August without further action. Traders view the combination of narrow GOP margins, internal divisions, and the approaching election as creating significant procedural barriers unlikely to be cleared in the remaining months of the 119th Congress.