Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.5%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
17%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
40%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
57%
4.0–4.4%
50%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.5%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
<1.5%
$278 Объем
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Объем
17%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Объем
20%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Объем
40%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Объем
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Объем
57%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Объем
50%
4.5%+
$238 Объем
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Объем
$1,961Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Объем
$1,961Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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