**Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on phased tariff adjustments, purchase commitments, and institutional mechanisms rather than a single comprehensive accord.** Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to identify specific tariffs for reduction and expand market access. These build on the November 2025 framework, which lowered select U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs by 10 points, suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs through November 10, 2026, extended Section 301 exclusions, and secured multi-year Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. Additional May 2026 outcomes included confirmed annual agricultural purchase targets of roughly $17 billion and progress on rare-earth access and aircraft sales, though core average tariff rates remain elevated near 30-36 percent amid separate Section 301 actions on forced labor and excess capacity. With the November 2026 truce expiration approaching and active bilateral channels in place, traders assign an 85.8 percent implied probability to an official tariff-related agreement or extension being announced by December 31, 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include further board negotiations and any pre-expiration reviews of current suspensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
86% вероятность
$231,955 Объем
$231,955 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
86% вероятность
$231,955 Объем
$231,955 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on phased tariff adjustments, purchase commitments, and institutional mechanisms rather than a single comprehensive accord.** Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to identify specific tariffs for reduction and expand market access. These build on the November 2025 framework, which lowered select U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs by 10 points, suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs through November 10, 2026, extended Section 301 exclusions, and secured multi-year Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods.
Additional May 2026 outcomes included confirmed annual agricultural purchase targets of roughly $17 billion and progress on rare-earth access and aircraft sales, though core average tariff rates remain elevated near 30-36 percent amid separate Section 301 actions on forced labor and excess capacity. With the November 2026 truce expiration approaching and active bilateral channels in place, traders assign an 85.8 percent implied probability to an official tariff-related agreement or extension being announced by December 31, 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include further board negotiations and any pre-expiration reviews of current suspensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Объем
$231,955Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on phased tariff adjustments, purchase commitments, and institutional mechanisms rather than a single comprehensive accord.** Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to identify specific tariffs for reduction and expand market access. These build on the November 2025 framework, which lowered select U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs by 10 points, suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs through November 10, 2026, extended Section 301 exclusions, and secured multi-year Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods.
Additional May 2026 outcomes included confirmed annual agricultural purchase targets of roughly $17 billion and progress on rare-earth access and aircraft sales, though core average tariff rates remain elevated near 30-36 percent amid separate Section 301 actions on forced labor and excess capacity. With the November 2026 truce expiration approaching and active bilateral channels in place, traders assign an 85.8 percent implied probability to an official tariff-related agreement or extension being announced by December 31, 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include further board negotiations and any pre-expiration reviews of current suspensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$231,955Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on phased tariff adjustments, purchase commitments, and institutional mechanisms rather than a single comprehensive accord.** Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to identify specific tariffs for reduction and expand market access. These build on the November 2025 framework, which lowered select U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs by 10 points, suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs through November 10, 2026, extended Section 301 exclusions, and secured multi-year Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. Additional May 2026 outcomes included confirmed annual agricultural purchase targets of roughly $17 billion and progress on rare-earth access and aircraft sales, though core average tariff rates remain elevated near 30-36 percent amid separate Section 301 actions on forced labor and excess capacity. With the November 2026 truce expiration approaching and active bilateral channels in place, traders assign an 85.8 percent implied probability to an official tariff-related agreement or extension being announced by December 31, 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include further board negotiations and any pre-expiration reviews of current suspensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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