**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAny bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы