Trump's prior proposals for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 rebate floated in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" announced in September 2026 conditional on Republican midterm gains, have not advanced to legislation or executive action. Available tariff revenue remains far below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person distributions, with collections estimated in the low hundreds of billions annually after refunds from the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain duties. Structural barriers, including the need for congressional appropriations, income or eligibility rules, and fiscal constraints amid ongoing deficits, have prevented implementation despite repeated administration statements. Trader consensus reflects these persistent gaps between rhetoric and feasible outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's prior proposals for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 rebate floated in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" announced in September 2026 conditional on Republican midterm gains, have not advanced to legislation or executive action. Available tariff revenue remains far below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person distributions, with collections estimated in the low hundreds of billions annually after refunds from the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain duties. Structural barriers, including the need for congressional appropriations, income or eligibility rules, and fiscal constraints amid ongoing deficits, have prevented implementation despite repeated administration statements. Trader consensus reflects these persistent gaps between rhetoric and feasible outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,781Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's prior proposals for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 rebate floated in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" announced in September 2026 conditional on Republican midterm gains, have not advanced to legislation or executive action. Available tariff revenue remains far below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person distributions, with collections estimated in the low hundreds of billions annually after refunds from the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain duties. Structural barriers, including the need for congressional appropriations, income or eligibility rules, and fiscal constraints amid ongoing deficits, have prevented implementation despite repeated administration statements. Trader consensus reflects these persistent gaps between rhetoric and feasible outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,781Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trump's prior proposals for tariff-funded payments, including a $2,000 rebate floated in late 2025 and a $5,000 "Trump dividend" announced in September 2026 conditional on Republican midterm gains, have not advanced to legislation or executive action. Available tariff revenue remains far below the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful per-person distributions, with collections estimated in the low hundreds of billions annually after refunds from the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain duties. Structural barriers, including the need for congressional appropriations, income or eligibility rules, and fiscal constraints amid ongoing deficits, have prevented implementation despite repeated administration statements. Trader consensus reflects these persistent gaps between rhetoric and feasible outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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