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icon for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

icon for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

янв. 1, 2027

янв. 1, 2027

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,781
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No** at 94.5% reflects the absence of any enacted tariff dividend program despite repeated presidential pledges. Trump proposed $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income households in late 2025 and escalated to a conditional $5,000 universal adult payment in September 2026 if Republicans retain Congress after the November midterms, but neither advanced to legislation or executive implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities, triggering over $100 billion in refunds from roughly $166 billion collected and sharply reducing available net revenue, which stood at about $195 billion gross for fiscal 2025. Analysts across sources note that even optimistic annual tariff collections fall well short of the hundreds of billions or trillions required for meaningful dividends, while any distribution would need congressional authorization that has not materialized. With the resolution window closing at year-end and no infrastructure or appropriations in place, traders assign high probability to continued inaction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,781
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 6% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 6¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 6%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jun 29, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущая вероятность для «Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?» составляет 6% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 6%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.