**Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Cuban officials in August 2026, combined with the passage of the summer escalation window without military action, support the 84.5% trader consensus against a clash.** The Trump administration has pursued maximum pressure through expanded sanctions, fuel restrictions, indictments, and heightened intelligence and surveillance activity around Guantanamo Bay. Senior officials have discussed contingency options and conducted high-level visits, yet direct military engagement has not materialized. Other priorities, including renewed tensions with Iran, have diverted resources, while recent bilateral exchanges emphasize dialogue on sovereignty and security issues. Traders appear to view these developments as evidence that coercive diplomacy remains the dominant approach rather than imminent armed conflict, consistent with historical patterns where sustained sanctions and negotiations often precede or substitute for direct confrontation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенное столкновение США и Кубы в 2026 году?
Военное столкновение США и Кубы в 2026 году?
Да
16% вероятность
$242,125 Объем
$242,125 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
$242,125 Объем
$242,125 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Cuban officials in August 2026, combined with the passage of the summer escalation window without military action, support the 84.5% trader consensus against a clash.** The Trump administration has pursued maximum pressure through expanded sanctions, fuel restrictions, indictments, and heightened intelligence and surveillance activity around Guantanamo Bay. Senior officials have discussed contingency options and conducted high-level visits, yet direct military engagement has not materialized. Other priorities, including renewed tensions with Iran, have diverted resources, while recent bilateral exchanges emphasize dialogue on sovereignty and security issues. Traders appear to view these developments as evidence that coercive diplomacy remains the dominant approach rather than imminent armed conflict, consistent with historical patterns where sustained sanctions and negotiations often precede or substitute for direct confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Объем
$242,125Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Cuban officials in August 2026, combined with the passage of the summer escalation window without military action, support the 84.5% trader consensus against a clash.** The Trump administration has pursued maximum pressure through expanded sanctions, fuel restrictions, indictments, and heightened intelligence and surveillance activity around Guantanamo Bay. Senior officials have discussed contingency options and conducted high-level visits, yet direct military engagement has not materialized. Other priorities, including renewed tensions with Iran, have diverted resources, while recent bilateral exchanges emphasize dialogue on sovereignty and security issues. Traders appear to view these developments as evidence that coercive diplomacy remains the dominant approach rather than imminent armed conflict, consistent with historical patterns where sustained sanctions and negotiations often precede or substitute for direct confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$242,125Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Cuban officials in August 2026, combined with the passage of the summer escalation window without military action, support the 84.5% trader consensus against a clash.** The Trump administration has pursued maximum pressure through expanded sanctions, fuel restrictions, indictments, and heightened intelligence and surveillance activity around Guantanamo Bay. Senior officials have discussed contingency options and conducted high-level visits, yet direct military engagement has not materialized. Other priorities, including renewed tensions with Iran, have diverted resources, while recent bilateral exchanges emphasize dialogue on sovereignty and security issues. Traders appear to view these developments as evidence that coercive diplomacy remains the dominant approach rather than imminent armed conflict, consistent with historical patterns where sustained sanctions and negotiations often precede or substitute for direct confrontation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы