Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?
Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?
$321,225 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва
84%
Флавио Болсонару
72%
Фернанду Аддад
8%
Мишель Болсонару
4%
Жаир Болсонару
3%
Тарсисио де Фрейтас
3%
$321,225 Объем
Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва
$135,114 Объем
84%
Флавио Болсонару
$20,621 Объем
72%
Фернанду Аддад
$51,472 Объем
8%
Мишель Болсонару
$26,646 Объем
4%
Жаир Болсонару
$11,325 Объем
3%
Тарсисио де Фрейтас
$76,048 Объем
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
Объем
$321,225Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$321,225Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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