Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHoward Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 28%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Объем
$11,675 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Howard Lutnick
30%
None before 2027
28%
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
21%
Marco Rubio
24%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Chris Wright
30%
Howard Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 28%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Объем
$11,675 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Объем
30%
None before 2027
$223 Объем
28%
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Объем
38%
Scott Bessent
$233 Объем
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 Объем
21%
Marco Rubio
$294 Объем
24%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Объем
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Объем
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Объем
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Объем
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 Объем
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Объем
2%
Scott Turner
$352 Объем
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Объем
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Объем
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Объем
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Объем
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Объем
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Объем
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Объем
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Объем
<1%
Chris Wright
$390 Объем
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Объем
$11,675Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$11,675Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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