Recent polls show left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 35–44 percent support ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, while conservative contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia split the remaining major share at roughly 20–23 percent each. This fragmentation across a crowded field of fourteen candidates has kept every contender well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory. Strategic endorsements consolidating support behind Cepeda have lifted his numbers but not enough to overcome the divided opposition, a pattern consistent with historical Colombian elections where runoffs have been the norm. Traders therefore assign only a 5.5 percent chance that any candidate clears the majority mark, viewing the split vote and absence of a dominant national figure as durable barriers unless unforeseen last-minute alignments occur before election day.