Musk's constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen born in South Africa remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at 96.7% for no announcement before 2027. Article II requires natural-born citizenship, and amending this standard would demand supermajorities in Congress plus ratification by three-fourths of states—a timeline incompatible with the short window. As of mid-2026, Musk has directed efforts toward America PAC spending on Republican midterms, oversight of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, and selective endorsements rather than personal candidacy. Brief 2025 signals around an America Party were quickly de-emphasized in favor of indirect influence. Remote shifts could stem from an accelerated constitutional amendment or novel judicial reinterpretation of eligibility requirements, though neither shows legislative or litigation momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$22,235 Объем
$22,235 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$22,235 Объем
$22,235 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Musk's constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen born in South Africa remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at 96.7% for no announcement before 2027. Article II requires natural-born citizenship, and amending this standard would demand supermajorities in Congress plus ratification by three-fourths of states—a timeline incompatible with the short window. As of mid-2026, Musk has directed efforts toward America PAC spending on Republican midterms, oversight of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, and selective endorsements rather than personal candidacy. Brief 2025 signals around an America Party were quickly de-emphasized in favor of indirect influence. Remote shifts could stem from an accelerated constitutional amendment or novel judicial reinterpretation of eligibility requirements, though neither shows legislative or litigation momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$22,235Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Musk's constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen born in South Africa remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at 96.7% for no announcement before 2027. Article II requires natural-born citizenship, and amending this standard would demand supermajorities in Congress plus ratification by three-fourths of states—a timeline incompatible with the short window. As of mid-2026, Musk has directed efforts toward America PAC spending on Republican midterms, oversight of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, and selective endorsements rather than personal candidacy. Brief 2025 signals around an America Party were quickly de-emphasized in favor of indirect influence. Remote shifts could stem from an accelerated constitutional amendment or novel judicial reinterpretation of eligibility requirements, though neither shows legislative or litigation momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$22,235Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Musk's constitutional ineligibility as a naturalized citizen born in South Africa remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at 96.7% for no announcement before 2027. Article II requires natural-born citizenship, and amending this standard would demand supermajorities in Congress plus ratification by three-fourths of states—a timeline incompatible with the short window. As of mid-2026, Musk has directed efforts toward America PAC spending on Republican midterms, oversight of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, and selective endorsements rather than personal candidacy. Brief 2025 signals around an America Party were quickly de-emphasized in favor of indirect influence. Remote shifts could stem from an accelerated constitutional amendment or novel judicial reinterpretation of eligibility requirements, though neither shows legislative or litigation momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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