Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПройдут ли корабли __ через Ормузский пролив в любой день до 30 июня?
Пройдут ли корабли __ через Ормузский пролив в любой день до 30 июня?
$3,238,350 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
40+
93%
60+
20%
80+
3%
$3,238,350 Объем
40+
$1,062,247 Объем
93%
60+
$842,833 Объем
20%
80+
$780,563 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Объем
$3,238,350Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$3,238,350Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 1, 2026, 1:58 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement developments, including the June 15 announcement and expected June 19 memorandum signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary catalyst easing risk premiums and supporting modest traffic resumption. Commercial transits remain suppressed at 5–10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with fewer than 10 vessels daily versus over 100 previously, amid ongoing mine-clearance requirements, elevated war-risk insurance surcharges, and demands for verified safety assurances. Isolated LNG movements and a handful of early crossings have occurred, but crude and product tanker flows stay minimal. Brent crude and related energy benchmarks have declined sharply in response, with Kpler estimating potential volume recovery to roughly 40 transits daily—near 50% of prewar norms—within 30 days if no setbacks emerge. Traders are monitoring near-term AIS data for signs of sustained pickup that could influence global supply-chain costs and refinery margins by the June 30 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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