Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues as direct $2,000 payments to middle- and lower-income households lacks any formal executive action or congressional legislation as of mid-May 2026. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue over $175 billion in refunds to importers rather than funding household dividends. A May 9 Court of International Trade decision further blocked 10% global tariffs, reducing available revenue and diverting collections away from new programs. Fiscal conservatives in Congress have signaled opposition to direct payments without offsetting cuts, while the remaining six weeks before the June 30 resolution deadline offer insufficient time for bill passage, committee review, or implementation. Traders price these procedural and legal barriers as the dominant factors behind the 92% implied probability of no creation by the cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$11,462 Объем
$11,462 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$11,462 Объем
$11,462 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues as direct $2,000 payments to middle- and lower-income households lacks any formal executive action or congressional legislation as of mid-May 2026. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue over $175 billion in refunds to importers rather than funding household dividends. A May 9 Court of International Trade decision further blocked 10% global tariffs, reducing available revenue and diverting collections away from new programs. Fiscal conservatives in Congress have signaled opposition to direct payments without offsetting cuts, while the remaining six weeks before the June 30 resolution deadline offer insufficient time for bill passage, committee review, or implementation. Traders price these procedural and legal barriers as the dominant factors behind the 92% implied probability of no creation by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Объем
$11,462Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues as direct $2,000 payments to middle- and lower-income households lacks any formal executive action or congressional legislation as of mid-May 2026. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue over $175 billion in refunds to importers rather than funding household dividends. A May 9 Court of International Trade decision further blocked 10% global tariffs, reducing available revenue and diverting collections away from new programs. Fiscal conservatives in Congress have signaled opposition to direct payments without offsetting cuts, while the remaining six weeks before the June 30 resolution deadline offer insufficient time for bill passage, committee review, or implementation. Traders price these procedural and legal barriers as the dominant factors behind the 92% implied probability of no creation by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$11,462Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues as direct $2,000 payments to middle- and lower-income households lacks any formal executive action or congressional legislation as of mid-May 2026. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue over $175 billion in refunds to importers rather than funding household dividends. A May 9 Court of International Trade decision further blocked 10% global tariffs, reducing available revenue and diverting collections away from new programs. Fiscal conservatives in Congress have signaled opposition to direct payments without offsetting cuts, while the remaining six weeks before the June 30 resolution deadline offer insufficient time for bill passage, committee review, or implementation. Traders price these procedural and legal barriers as the dominant factors behind the 92% implied probability of no creation by the cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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