Recent polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 36-42% and Flávio at 29-37% of voting intentions. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on sub-5% margins between the two frontrunners. Volatility stems from overlapping fieldwork in mid-September surveys that place the pair within or near the margin of error in both first-round and hypothetical runoff scenarios. Ongoing Supreme Court proceedings over leaked messages and related investigations, alongside corruption allegations involving figures linked to both campaigns, have contributed to shifting voter sentiment and regional polarization. Economic conditions and turnout expectations in key states further support the market's assessment of a narrow Lula edge.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 50%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.3%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.9%
$482,764 ปริมาณ
$482,764 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
50%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
24%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 50%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.3%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.9%
$482,764 ปริมาณ
$482,764 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$20,033 ปริมาณ
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$46,054 ปริมาณ
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$42,211 ปริมาณ
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$42,747 ปริมาณ
50%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$27,421 ปริมาณ
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$24,830 ปริมาณ
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$32,340 ปริมาณ
24%
Renan Santos Victory
$218,074 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$9,720 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$9,114 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$10,219 ปริมาณ
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 36-42% and Flávio at 29-37% of voting intentions. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on sub-5% margins between the two frontrunners. Volatility stems from overlapping fieldwork in mid-September surveys that place the pair within or near the margin of error in both first-round and hypothetical runoff scenarios. Ongoing Supreme Court proceedings over leaked messages and related investigations, alongside corruption allegations involving figures linked to both campaigns, have contributed to shifting voter sentiment and regional polarization. Economic conditions and turnout expectations in key states further support the market's assessment of a narrow Lula edge.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$482,764วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 36-42% and Flávio at 29-37% of voting intentions. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on sub-5% margins between the two frontrunners. Volatility stems from overlapping fieldwork in mid-September surveys that place the pair within or near the margin of error in both first-round and hypothetical runoff scenarios. Ongoing Supreme Court proceedings over leaked messages and related investigations, alongside corruption allegations involving figures linked to both campaigns, have contributed to shifting voter sentiment and regional polarization. Economic conditions and turnout expectations in key states further support the market's assessment of a narrow Lula edge.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$482,764วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates show President Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a tight first-round contest ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula typically at 36-42% and Flávio at 29-37% of voting intentions. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, consistent with trader emphasis on sub-5% margins between the two frontrunners. Volatility stems from overlapping fieldwork in mid-September surveys that place the pair within or near the margin of error in both first-round and hypothetical runoff scenarios. Ongoing Supreme Court proceedings over leaked messages and related investigations, alongside corruption allegations involving figures linked to both campaigns, have contributed to shifting voter sentiment and regional polarization. Economic conditions and turnout expectations in key states further support the market's assessment of a narrow Lula edge.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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