Recent polling data shows incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 38-40% range against 33-36%, with remaining support scattered among lower-polling candidates. This fragmented field, combined with Lula's modest approval ratings amid economic pressures and ongoing scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro following leaked audio tied to a banking scandal, sustains trader expectations for a first-round margin under 5%. Polls from Datafolha and Quaest released in mid-May reinforce the tight positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while low single-digit shares for figures such as Renan Santos limit any consolidation that could widen the gap. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of a polarized but closely contested opening round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 17%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 10.8%
$231,585 ปริมาณ
$231,585 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
11%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
42%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
17%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
23%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 17%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 10.8%
$231,585 ปริมาณ
$231,585 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 ปริมาณ
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 ปริมาณ
11%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 ปริมาณ
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 ปริมาณ
42%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 ปริมาณ
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 ปริมาณ
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 ปริมาณ
17%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,567 ปริมาณ
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,707 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$2,258 ปริมาณ
23%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling data shows incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 38-40% range against 33-36%, with remaining support scattered among lower-polling candidates. This fragmented field, combined with Lula's modest approval ratings amid economic pressures and ongoing scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro following leaked audio tied to a banking scandal, sustains trader expectations for a first-round margin under 5%. Polls from Datafolha and Quaest released in mid-May reinforce the tight positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while low single-digit shares for figures such as Renan Santos limit any consolidation that could widen the gap. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of a polarized but closely contested opening round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$231,585วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling data shows incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 38-40% range against 33-36%, with remaining support scattered among lower-polling candidates. This fragmented field, combined with Lula's modest approval ratings amid economic pressures and ongoing scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro following leaked audio tied to a banking scandal, sustains trader expectations for a first-round margin under 5%. Polls from Datafolha and Quaest released in mid-May reinforce the tight positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while low single-digit shares for figures such as Renan Santos limit any consolidation that could widen the gap. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of a polarized but closely contested opening round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$231,585วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling data shows incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 38-40% range against 33-36%, with remaining support scattered among lower-polling candidates. This fragmented field, combined with Lula's modest approval ratings amid economic pressures and ongoing scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro following leaked audio tied to a banking scandal, sustains trader expectations for a first-round margin under 5%. Polls from Datafolha and Quaest released in mid-May reinforce the tight positioning ahead of the October 4 vote, while low single-digit shares for figures such as Renan Santos limit any consolidation that could widen the gap. The consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of a polarized but closely contested opening round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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