Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 38–42% in first-round simulations, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by roughly 4–8 points, with Augusto Cury and other candidates fragmenting the remainder. This positioning underpins the heavy weighting on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or 5–10%, as right-wing support remains split and undecided or blank ballots hover near 10–15%. Runoff head-to-heads have tightened into statistical ties or narrow leads for either side in September surveys, reflecting high rejection rates for both frontrunners and limited consolidation behind the challenger despite Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. The October 4 first-round vote and subsequent runoff mechanics further anchor trader emphasis on modest victory margins rather than decisive separation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.9%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.1%
$484,717 ปริมาณ
$484,717 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24.9%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.1%
$484,717 ปริมาณ
$484,717 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$20,038 ปริมาณ
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$46,059 ปริมาณ
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$42,323 ปริมาณ
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$43,726 ปริมาณ
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$27,431 ปริมาณ
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$24,949 ปริมาณ
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$33,063 ปริมาณ
25%
Renan Santos Victory
$218,074 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$9,720 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$9,114 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$10,219 ปริมาณ
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 38–42% in first-round simulations, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by roughly 4–8 points, with Augusto Cury and other candidates fragmenting the remainder. This positioning underpins the heavy weighting on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or 5–10%, as right-wing support remains split and undecided or blank ballots hover near 10–15%. Runoff head-to-heads have tightened into statistical ties or narrow leads for either side in September surveys, reflecting high rejection rates for both frontrunners and limited consolidation behind the challenger despite Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. The October 4 first-round vote and subsequent runoff mechanics further anchor trader emphasis on modest victory margins rather than decisive separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$484,717วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 38–42% in first-round simulations, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by roughly 4–8 points, with Augusto Cury and other candidates fragmenting the remainder. This positioning underpins the heavy weighting on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or 5–10%, as right-wing support remains split and undecided or blank ballots hover near 10–15%. Runoff head-to-heads have tightened into statistical ties or narrow leads for either side in September surveys, reflecting high rejection rates for both frontrunners and limited consolidation behind the challenger despite Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. The October 4 first-round vote and subsequent runoff mechanics further anchor trader emphasis on modest victory margins rather than decisive separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$484,717วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 38–42% in first-round simulations, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by roughly 4–8 points, with Augusto Cury and other candidates fragmenting the remainder. This positioning underpins the heavy weighting on Lula da Silva margins under 5% or 5–10%, as right-wing support remains split and undecided or blank ballots hover near 10–15%. Runoff head-to-heads have tightened into statistical ties or narrow leads for either side in September surveys, reflecting high rejection rates for both frontrunners and limited consolidation behind the challenger despite Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. The October 4 first-round vote and subsequent runoff mechanics further anchor trader emphasis on modest victory margins rather than decisive separation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
75%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
42%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
38%
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