Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote has held Renan Santos (Missão) steady in the low single digits, with September surveys from CNT/MDA, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and others showing him between 2% and 4%. Traders price the 2-4% bucket highest because his support remains concentrated among younger and digitally engaged voters while broader name recognition stays limited amid the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro contest. The Mission Party candidate’s independent right-wing positioning has not yet translated into wider gains, and competition from other third-way names such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further caps his ceiling. His candidacy was formally validated by the TSE in early September, removing a procedural hurdle but not materially shifting measured support.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2-4% 41%
<2% 24%
4-6% 16%
8%+ 10%
$62,454 ปริมาณ
$62,454 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
24%
2-4%
41%
4-6%
16%
6-8%
6%
8%+
10%
2-4% 41%
<2% 24%
4-6% 16%
8%+ 10%
$62,454 ปริมาณ
$62,454 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$803 ปริมาณ
24%
2-4%
$1,892 ปริมาณ
41%
4-6%
$2,362 ปริมาณ
16%
6-8%
$560 ปริมาณ
6%
8%+
$56,836 ปริมาณ
10%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote has held Renan Santos (Missão) steady in the low single digits, with September surveys from CNT/MDA, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and others showing him between 2% and 4%. Traders price the 2-4% bucket highest because his support remains concentrated among younger and digitally engaged voters while broader name recognition stays limited amid the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro contest. The Mission Party candidate’s independent right-wing positioning has not yet translated into wider gains, and competition from other third-way names such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further caps his ceiling. His candidacy was formally validated by the TSE in early September, removing a procedural hurdle but not materially shifting measured support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$62,454วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote has held Renan Santos (Missão) steady in the low single digits, with September surveys from CNT/MDA, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and others showing him between 2% and 4%. Traders price the 2-4% bucket highest because his support remains concentrated among younger and digitally engaged voters while broader name recognition stays limited amid the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro contest. The Mission Party candidate’s independent right-wing positioning has not yet translated into wider gains, and competition from other third-way names such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further caps his ceiling. His candidacy was formally validated by the TSE in early September, removing a procedural hurdle but not materially shifting measured support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$62,454วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote has held Renan Santos (Missão) steady in the low single digits, with September surveys from CNT/MDA, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and others showing him between 2% and 4%. Traders price the 2-4% bucket highest because his support remains concentrated among younger and digitally engaged voters while broader name recognition stays limited amid the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro contest. The Mission Party candidate’s independent right-wing positioning has not yet translated into wider gains, and competition from other third-way names such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado further caps his ceiling. His candidacy was formally validated by the TSE in early September, removing a procedural hurdle but not materially shifting measured support.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
87%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
48%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
52%
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