**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round.** Recent polling aggregates show the incumbent Workers’ Party president holding 38–46% support, with the Liberal Party senator and son of the former president at 30–37%, while other right-leaning names such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trail in single digits. Runoff simulations are statistically tied or show narrow leads for either candidate, reflecting a polarized contest shaped by economic conditions, public security concerns, and legal proceedings involving Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s two-round system makes a runoff highly probable absent an outright majority. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled debates, the final weeks of free broadcast time, and any last-minute shifts in undecided or blank/null voting intentions that could alter first-round margins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$621,892 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$621,892 ปริมาณ
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$280,143 ปริมาณ
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$105,403 ปริมาณ
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 ปริมาณ
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,725 ปริมาณ
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 ปริมาณ
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,749 ปริมาณ
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,584 ปริมาณ
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 ปริมาณ
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 ปริมาณ
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round.** Recent polling aggregates show the incumbent Workers’ Party president holding 38–46% support, with the Liberal Party senator and son of the former president at 30–37%, while other right-leaning names such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trail in single digits. Runoff simulations are statistically tied or show narrow leads for either candidate, reflecting a polarized contest shaped by economic conditions, public security concerns, and legal proceedings involving Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s two-round system makes a runoff highly probable absent an outright majority. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled debates, the final weeks of free broadcast time, and any last-minute shifts in undecided or blank/null voting intentions that could alter first-round margins.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$621,892วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round.** Recent polling aggregates show the incumbent Workers’ Party president holding 38–46% support, with the Liberal Party senator and son of the former president at 30–37%, while other right-leaning names such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trail in single digits. Runoff simulations are statistically tied or show narrow leads for either candidate, reflecting a polarized contest shaped by economic conditions, public security concerns, and legal proceedings involving Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s two-round system makes a runoff highly probable absent an outright majority. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled debates, the final weeks of free broadcast time, and any last-minute shifts in undecided or blank/null voting intentions that could alter first-round margins.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$621,892วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round.** Recent polling aggregates show the incumbent Workers’ Party president holding 38–46% support, with the Liberal Party senator and son of the former president at 30–37%, while other right-leaning names such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trail in single digits. Runoff simulations are statistically tied or show narrow leads for either candidate, reflecting a polarized contest shaped by economic conditions, public security concerns, and legal proceedings involving Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s two-round system makes a runoff highly probable absent an outright majority. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled debates, the final weeks of free broadcast time, and any last-minute shifts in undecided or blank/null voting intentions that could alter first-round margins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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