Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in the October 4, 2026 first round, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent polls place him at 38–42% in the opening round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Runoff simulations show Lula holding narrow leads or statistical ties (typically 43–40% or 47–43%), reflecting sustained polarization, cooling GDP growth, and voter concerns over the economy. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his conviction keeps the contest centered on his son as the leading right-wing standard-bearer. Trader consensus on advancement probabilities tracks these polling trends and the structural advantage of the two largest blocs in Brazil’s two-round system.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$471,620 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
87%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
$471,620 ปริมาณ
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$217,431 ปริมาณ
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$45,576 ปริมาณ
87%
Renan Santos
$11,333 ปริมาณ
7%
Romeu Zema
$530 ปริมาณ
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 ปริมาณ
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$648 ปริมาณ
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,652 ปริมาณ
1%
Fernando Haddad
$64,718 ปริมาณ
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,290 ปริมาณ
<1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in the October 4, 2026 first round, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent polls place him at 38–42% in the opening round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Runoff simulations show Lula holding narrow leads or statistical ties (typically 43–40% or 47–43%), reflecting sustained polarization, cooling GDP growth, and voter concerns over the economy. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his conviction keeps the contest centered on his son as the leading right-wing standard-bearer. Trader consensus on advancement probabilities tracks these polling trends and the structural advantage of the two largest blocs in Brazil’s two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$471,620วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in the October 4, 2026 first round, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent polls place him at 38–42% in the opening round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Runoff simulations show Lula holding narrow leads or statistical ties (typically 43–40% or 47–43%), reflecting sustained polarization, cooling GDP growth, and voter concerns over the economy. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his conviction keeps the contest centered on his son as the leading right-wing standard-bearer. Trader consensus on advancement probabilities tracks these polling trends and the structural advantage of the two largest blocs in Brazil’s two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$471,620วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in the October 4, 2026 first round, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority. Recent polls place him at 38–42% in the opening round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Runoff simulations show Lula holding narrow leads or statistical ties (typically 43–40% or 47–43%), reflecting sustained polarization, cooling GDP growth, and voter concerns over the economy. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility after his conviction keeps the contest centered on his son as the leading right-wing standard-bearer. Trader consensus on advancement probabilities tracks these polling trends and the structural advantage of the two largest blocs in Brazil’s two-round system.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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