**Lula’s campaign strategy, anchored in his consistent polling lead over Flávio Bolsonaro and other challengers ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, shapes trader expectations for selective debate participation.** Recent reporting indicates the Workers’ Party candidate has declined the initial Bandeirantes-organized televised debate scheduled for August 23, citing concerns over unequal conditions and the inclusion of lower-polling candidates. Flávio Bolsonaro’s camp has similarly signaled it will skip unless Lula attends, leaving the early matchup without the two frontrunners. Multiple additional presidential debates remain scheduled before the first round, including on September 14 and September 27, creating windows for a later appearance. Lula’s team has signaled a preference for calibrated engagement rather than blanket participation, weighing risks of multi-candidate attacks against the value of visibility in a polarized contest. With the market resolving Yes only if Lula speaks at least once in a qualifying televised debate with another registered candidate by October 3, traders price the 57.5% probability for Yes around the balance between confirmed early absences and remaining scheduled opportunities. No final commitments have closed off all pre-first-round slots.