Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's late April survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, alongside trackings like Confidencial's early May data (Cepeda 38%, Valencia 23%, de la Espriella 22%), underpin trader consensus pricing a Cepeda Castro first-round win by 10-15% (39%) or 5-10% (29.5%). The right-wing vote split between de la Espriella's populist appeal and Valencia's center-right base, plus 10-15% undecideds amid pre-election violence spikes, keeps margins tight despite Cepeda's left-wing consolidation post-March legislative gains. De la Espriella's outright win at 15.5% reflects prediction market surges on his anti-narco rhetoric. Right endorsements, debates, or scandals could consolidate opposition votes and widen or erase the gap before the May 31 ballot.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 29%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.1%
$13,112 ปริมาณ
$13,112 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
7%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
29%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
13%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 29%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.1%
$13,112 ปริมาณ
$13,112 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,629 ปริมาณ
7%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$884 ปริมาณ
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$913 ปริมาณ
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$938 ปริมาณ
29%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$977 ปริมาณ
13%
de la Espriella Win
$3,874 ปริมาณ
15%
Valencia Win
$1,968 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$1,929 ปริมาณ
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's late April survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, alongside trackings like Confidencial's early May data (Cepeda 38%, Valencia 23%, de la Espriella 22%), underpin trader consensus pricing a Cepeda Castro first-round win by 10-15% (39%) or 5-10% (29.5%). The right-wing vote split between de la Espriella's populist appeal and Valencia's center-right base, plus 10-15% undecideds amid pre-election violence spikes, keeps margins tight despite Cepeda's left-wing consolidation post-March legislative gains. De la Espriella's outright win at 15.5% reflects prediction market surges on his anti-narco rhetoric. Right endorsements, debates, or scandals could consolidate opposition votes and widen or erase the gap before the May 31 ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,112วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's late April survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, alongside trackings like Confidencial's early May data (Cepeda 38%, Valencia 23%, de la Espriella 22%), underpin trader consensus pricing a Cepeda Castro first-round win by 10-15% (39%) or 5-10% (29.5%). The right-wing vote split between de la Espriella's populist appeal and Valencia's center-right base, plus 10-15% undecideds amid pre-election violence spikes, keeps margins tight despite Cepeda's left-wing consolidation post-March legislative gains. De la Espriella's outright win at 15.5% reflects prediction market surges on his anti-narco rhetoric. Right endorsements, debates, or scandals could consolidate opposition votes and widen or erase the gap before the May 31 ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,112วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's late April survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, alongside trackings like Confidencial's early May data (Cepeda 38%, Valencia 23%, de la Espriella 22%), underpin trader consensus pricing a Cepeda Castro first-round win by 10-15% (39%) or 5-10% (29.5%). The right-wing vote split between de la Espriella's populist appeal and Valencia's center-right base, plus 10-15% undecideds amid pre-election violence spikes, keeps margins tight despite Cepeda's left-wing consolidation post-March legislative gains. De la Espriella's outright win at 15.5% reflects prediction market surges on his anti-narco rhetoric. Right endorsements, debates, or scandals could consolidate opposition votes and widen or erase the gap before the May 31 ballot.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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