Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered strikes on military targets around Kharg, Hengam, Hormuz, and related sites, including recent hits on tankers near Kharg, without altering Iranian governmental or military control. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with pre-conflict loadings near 2 million barrels per day now sharply reduced amid blockades and a naval exclusion zone; this has lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel on supply concerns and tanker rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets price in sustained pressure via sanctions and energy-flow risks rather than imminent territorial shifts, with trader consensus reflecting the high barriers to seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and any expansion of strikes on export infrastructure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$157,248 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$157,248 ปริมาณ
September 30
$104,471 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered strikes on military targets around Kharg, Hengam, Hormuz, and related sites, including recent hits on tankers near Kharg, without altering Iranian governmental or military control. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with pre-conflict loadings near 2 million barrels per day now sharply reduced amid blockades and a naval exclusion zone; this has lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel on supply concerns and tanker rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets price in sustained pressure via sanctions and energy-flow risks rather than imminent territorial shifts, with trader consensus reflecting the high barriers to seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and any expansion of strikes on export infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$157,248วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered strikes on military targets around Kharg, Hengam, Hormuz, and related sites, including recent hits on tankers near Kharg, without altering Iranian governmental or military control. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with pre-conflict loadings near 2 million barrels per day now sharply reduced amid blockades and a naval exclusion zone; this has lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel on supply concerns and tanker rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets price in sustained pressure via sanctions and energy-flow risks rather than imminent territorial shifts, with trader consensus reflecting the high barriers to seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and any expansion of strikes on export infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$157,248วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have centered strikes on military targets around Kharg, Hengam, Hormuz, and related sites, including recent hits on tankers near Kharg, without altering Iranian governmental or military control. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with pre-conflict loadings near 2 million barrels per day now sharply reduced amid blockades and a naval exclusion zone; this has lifted Brent crude toward $97 per barrel on supply concerns and tanker rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets price in sustained pressure via sanctions and energy-flow risks rather than imminent territorial shifts, with trader consensus reflecting the high barriers to seizure. Key near-term variables include Iran-Oman navigation talks and any expansion of strikes on export infrastructure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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