US-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz navigation have driven discussion of Persian Gulf islands, with Farsi Island noted for its IRGC naval role and past incidents. However, recent US and Israeli strikes have focused primarily on Kharg Island oil facilities and other targets since February 2026, alongside threats of ground operations to restore shipping access. No verified military actions, seizures, or official announcements have targeted Farsi specifically. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of active campaigns against the island amid broader de-escalation signals and strategic priorities elsewhere. Escalation or new diplomatic pressure could alter this assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$168,061 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
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$168,061 ปริมาณ
August 31
$159,168 ปริมาณ
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz navigation have driven discussion of Persian Gulf islands, with Farsi Island noted for its IRGC naval role and past incidents. However, recent US and Israeli strikes have focused primarily on Kharg Island oil facilities and other targets since February 2026, alongside threats of ground operations to restore shipping access. No verified military actions, seizures, or official announcements have targeted Farsi specifically. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of active campaigns against the island amid broader de-escalation signals and strategic priorities elsewhere. Escalation or new diplomatic pressure could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$168,061วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz navigation have driven discussion of Persian Gulf islands, with Farsi Island noted for its IRGC naval role and past incidents. However, recent US and Israeli strikes have focused primarily on Kharg Island oil facilities and other targets since February 2026, alongside threats of ground operations to restore shipping access. No verified military actions, seizures, or official announcements have targeted Farsi specifically. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of active campaigns against the island amid broader de-escalation signals and strategic priorities elsewhere. Escalation or new diplomatic pressure could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$168,061วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz navigation have driven discussion of Persian Gulf islands, with Farsi Island noted for its IRGC naval role and past incidents. However, recent US and Israeli strikes have focused primarily on Kharg Island oil facilities and other targets since February 2026, alongside threats of ground operations to restore shipping access. No verified military actions, seizures, or official announcements have targeted Farsi specifically. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probability to loss of Iranian control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of active campaigns against the island amid broader de-escalation signals and strategic priorities elsewhere. Escalation or new diplomatic pressure could alter this assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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