The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District remains fluid, with trader consensus assigning Marcus Carter the highest implied probability at 43.5 percent amid fragmented support and no public polls. Thomas Chalifoux trails at 28.5 percent despite raising more than $2.3 million and pledging an additional $3 million in personal funds on May 11, a financial edge that has not yet consolidated primary voters. Justin Story sits at 25.5 percent on the strength of his military background as a retired Marine Corps officer and former F-18 pilot, while Jorge Malavet and Howard Steven Rance trail further behind. Recent American Patriot Executive Committee backing for Carter and the absence of decisive endorsements or surveys have kept probabilities tight, leaving room for late shifts driven by debates or additional organizational support before primary day.