Anna Paulina Luna holds a 71% implied probability in the FL-13 House race due to her status as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and stronger overall fundraising of roughly $4.1 million compared with Leela Gray’s $2.6 million. Forecasters rate the contest Lean Republican or Likely Republican, citing Luna’s established voter base and cash-on-hand advantage entering the final stretch before the November 3 general election. Recent Democratic-sponsored polling, including a mid-October Public Policy Polling survey showing Gray at 47% and Luna at 46%, has narrowed the gap and prompted additional outside spending from House Majority PAC, yet prediction markets continue to price in Luna’s edge consistent with historical incumbent performance in similar districts.