Scott Singer leads the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 25th Congressional District as the clear market favorite, reflecting his name recognition as former Boca Raton mayor, substantial fundraising exceeding $2 million, and a late-July 1892 Polling survey showing him at 21% among likely primary voters—well ahead of Dan Franzese and George Moraitis. Traders price the other listed candidates at minimal levels consistent with their lower polling and limited visibility in the closed primary. With early voting underway and the contest one day away, the frontrunner’s edge stems from local executive experience on taxes and regulations plus endorsements in a district shifting after redistricting. Late shifts remain possible only if turnout patterns among America First voters deviate sharply from the survey.