**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on July 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 16?
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
ใหม่
$19,356 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$19,356 ปริมาณ
Jul 16, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
6%
15°C
68%
16°C
18%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
ใหม่
$19,356 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$19,356 ปริมาณ
Jul 16, 2026
10°C or below
$491 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$694 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$617 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$1,135 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$2,563 ปริมาณ
6%
15°C
$5,124 ปริมาณ
68%
16°C
$4,870 ปริมาณ
18%
17°C
$2,129 ปริมาณ
5%
18°C
$801 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$586 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C or higher
$346 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,356วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,356วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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