Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 16?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 16?
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
4%
17°C
16%
18°C
34%
19°C
31%
20°C
15%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 16, 2026
14°C or below
$140 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$80 ปริมาณ
3%
16°C
$91 ปริมาณ
4%
17°C
$311 ปริมาณ
16%
18°C
$228 ปริมาณ
34%
19°C
$647 ปริมาณ
31%
20°C
$364 ปริมาณ
15%
21°C
$353 ปริมาณ
5%
22°C
$51 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$552 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C or higher
$337 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,153วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,153วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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