**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz control dominate trader assessments for this market.** Since late February 2026, Iran has used Hormuz Island and nearby outposts such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb to enforce transit restrictions, board vessels, and impose routing requirements or fees on commercial shipping. The United States responded with naval blockades, strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites, and escort operations, while Iran has retaliated against noncompliant ships and regional targets. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait under negotiated terms collapsed amid renewed attacks in July, leading to fresh US strikes and Iranian assertions of authority. As of mid-August 2026, traffic remains heavily disrupted, with both sides continuing operations that test Iranian sovereignty claims without altering territorial control of the island itself. Key variables include any expansion of US or allied ground or amphibious actions, further diplomatic talks with Oman or other Gulf states, and Iranian military resilience on its southern islands. Resolution depends on verified changes to Iranian administration of Hormuz Island by the specified date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$61,589 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$61,589 ปริมาณ
August 31
$49,852 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz control dominate trader assessments for this market.** Since late February 2026, Iran has used Hormuz Island and nearby outposts such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb to enforce transit restrictions, board vessels, and impose routing requirements or fees on commercial shipping. The United States responded with naval blockades, strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites, and escort operations, while Iran has retaliated against noncompliant ships and regional targets.
A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait under negotiated terms collapsed amid renewed attacks in July, leading to fresh US strikes and Iranian assertions of authority. As of mid-August 2026, traffic remains heavily disrupted, with both sides continuing operations that test Iranian sovereignty claims without altering territorial control of the island itself. Key variables include any expansion of US or allied ground or amphibious actions, further diplomatic talks with Oman or other Gulf states, and Iranian military resilience on its southern islands. Resolution depends on verified changes to Iranian administration of Hormuz Island by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,589วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz control dominate trader assessments for this market.** Since late February 2026, Iran has used Hormuz Island and nearby outposts such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb to enforce transit restrictions, board vessels, and impose routing requirements or fees on commercial shipping. The United States responded with naval blockades, strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites, and escort operations, while Iran has retaliated against noncompliant ships and regional targets.
A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait under negotiated terms collapsed amid renewed attacks in July, leading to fresh US strikes and Iranian assertions of authority. As of mid-August 2026, traffic remains heavily disrupted, with both sides continuing operations that test Iranian sovereignty claims without altering territorial control of the island itself. Key variables include any expansion of US or allied ground or amphibious actions, further diplomatic talks with Oman or other Gulf states, and Iranian military resilience on its southern islands. Resolution depends on verified changes to Iranian administration of Hormuz Island by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,589วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over Strait of Hormuz control dominate trader assessments for this market.** Since late February 2026, Iran has used Hormuz Island and nearby outposts such as Qeshm and Greater Tunb to enforce transit restrictions, board vessels, and impose routing requirements or fees on commercial shipping. The United States responded with naval blockades, strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites, and escort operations, while Iran has retaliated against noncompliant ships and regional targets. A June 2026 memorandum aimed at reopening the strait under negotiated terms collapsed amid renewed attacks in July, leading to fresh US strikes and Iranian assertions of authority. As of mid-August 2026, traffic remains heavily disrupted, with both sides continuing operations that test Iranian sovereignty claims without altering territorial control of the island itself. Key variables include any expansion of US or allied ground or amphibious actions, further diplomatic talks with Oman or other Gulf states, and Iranian military resilience on its southern islands. Resolution depends on verified changes to Iranian administration of Hormuz Island by the specified date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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