As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the narrow edge for the 20–23 bin over 24–27 in trader pricing. Record early retirements reflect a generational shift among longer-serving members, including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others opting to step aside amid age considerations and institutional fatigue, while several pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Redistricting pressures in states like Texas and Illinois, combined with primary challenges and the broader wave of turnover exceeding historical norms for this stage, sustain uncertainty over final tallies. Additional announcements before filing deadlines or shifts among borderline incumbents could separate the leading ranges, as the current count sits near the boundary between the two most probable outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว20–23 40.6%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
<20 8.8%
$44,509 ปริมาณ
$44,509 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<20
9%
20–23
41%
24–27
39%
28–31
13%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40+
1%
20–23 40.6%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
<20 8.8%
$44,509 ปริมาณ
$44,509 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,793 ปริมาณ
9%
20–23
$9,735 ปริมาณ
41%
24–27
$7,512 ปริมาณ
39%
28–31
$1,924 ปริมาณ
13%
32–35
$4,526 ปริมาณ
7%
36–39
$1,348 ปริมาณ
1%
40+
$1,671 ปริมาณ
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the narrow edge for the 20–23 bin over 24–27 in trader pricing. Record early retirements reflect a generational shift among longer-serving members, including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others opting to step aside amid age considerations and institutional fatigue, while several pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Redistricting pressures in states like Texas and Illinois, combined with primary challenges and the broader wave of turnover exceeding historical norms for this stage, sustain uncertainty over final tallies. Additional announcements before filing deadlines or shifts among borderline incumbents could separate the leading ranges, as the current count sits near the boundary between the two most probable outcomes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$44,509วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the narrow edge for the 20–23 bin over 24–27 in trader pricing. Record early retirements reflect a generational shift among longer-serving members, including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others opting to step aside amid age considerations and institutional fatigue, while several pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Redistricting pressures in states like Texas and Illinois, combined with primary challenges and the broader wave of turnover exceeding historical norms for this stage, sustain uncertainty over final tallies. Additional announcements before filing deadlines or shifts among borderline incumbents could separate the leading ranges, as the current count sits near the boundary between the two most probable outcomes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$44,509วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the narrow edge for the 20–23 bin over 24–27 in trader pricing. Record early retirements reflect a generational shift among longer-serving members, including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others opting to step aside amid age considerations and institutional fatigue, while several pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Redistricting pressures in states like Texas and Illinois, combined with primary challenges and the broader wave of turnover exceeding historical norms for this stage, sustain uncertainty over final tallies. Additional announcements before filing deadlines or shifts among borderline incumbents could separate the leading ranges, as the current count sits near the boundary between the two most probable outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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