The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and triggered effective closure or severe restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since late that month, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Pre-war norms saw 60–140 commercial vessels daily (roughly 400–1,000 weekly), but sustained military risks, insurance spikes, vessel idling, and rerouting have compressed weekly transits to single digits or low teens in recent periods, according to Lloyd’s List, Kpler, and live tracking data. This underpins the 68.5% implied probability on the 25–49 range and 29.5% on sub-25, with negligible odds on higher buckets reflecting persistent barriers despite limited U.S. escort activity and Iran’s June 7 comments on potential reopening with transit fees. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued low volumes absent rapid de-escalation ahead of mid-June resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
25-49 69%
<25 31%
50-74 1.1%
100+ 1.1%
$41,687 ปริมาณ
$41,687 ปริมาณ
Jun 14, 2026
<25
31%
25-49
69%
50-74
1%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 69%
<25 31%
50-74 1.1%
100+ 1.1%
$41,687 ปริมาณ
$41,687 ปริมาณ
Jun 14, 2026
<25
$11,907 ปริมาณ
31%
25-49
$7,264 ปริมาณ
69%
50-74
$3,946 ปริมาณ
1%
75-99
$3,220 ปริมาณ
1%
100+
$15,387 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and triggered effective closure or severe restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since late that month, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Pre-war norms saw 60–140 commercial vessels daily (roughly 400–1,000 weekly), but sustained military risks, insurance spikes, vessel idling, and rerouting have compressed weekly transits to single digits or low teens in recent periods, according to Lloyd’s List, Kpler, and live tracking data. This underpins the 68.5% implied probability on the 25–49 range and 29.5% on sub-25, with negligible odds on higher buckets reflecting persistent barriers despite limited U.S. escort activity and Iran’s June 7 comments on potential reopening with transit fees. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued low volumes absent rapid de-escalation ahead of mid-June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,687วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and triggered effective closure or severe restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since late that month, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Pre-war norms saw 60–140 commercial vessels daily (roughly 400–1,000 weekly), but sustained military risks, insurance spikes, vessel idling, and rerouting have compressed weekly transits to single digits or low teens in recent periods, according to Lloyd’s List, Kpler, and live tracking data. This underpins the 68.5% implied probability on the 25–49 range and 29.5% on sub-25, with negligible odds on higher buckets reflecting persistent barriers despite limited U.S. escort activity and Iran’s June 7 comments on potential reopening with transit fees. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued low volumes absent rapid de-escalation ahead of mid-June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,687วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and triggered effective closure or severe restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz since late that month, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Pre-war norms saw 60–140 commercial vessels daily (roughly 400–1,000 weekly), but sustained military risks, insurance spikes, vessel idling, and rerouting have compressed weekly transits to single digits or low teens in recent periods, according to Lloyd’s List, Kpler, and live tracking data. This underpins the 68.5% implied probability on the 25–49 range and 29.5% on sub-25, with negligible odds on higher buckets reflecting persistent barriers despite limited U.S. escort activity and Iran’s June 7 comments on potential reopening with transit fees. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued low volumes absent rapid de-escalation ahead of mid-June resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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