Recent delays in Starship V3 development and testing have pushed the first 2026 flight to mid-May, limiting early momentum after the October 2025 orbital attempt. Traders see this cautious start, combined with ongoing Super Heavy booster refinements and FAA licensing for Florida sites, as key reasons the market assigns over 76 percent implied probability to fewer than seven successful launches reaching space this year. Potential catalysts include the upcoming V3 debut, tower catch demonstrations, and infrastructure buildup at Kennedy Space Center, though historical test timelines and regulatory reviews suggest ramp-up could remain gradual through the second half of 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
ในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
น้อยกว่า 5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 ปริมาณ
$450,036 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
50%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
น้อยกว่า 5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 ปริมาณ
$450,036 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
$90,622 ปริมาณ
50%
5-6
$108,327 ปริมาณ
26%
7-8
$152,207 ปริมาณ
4%
9-10
$55,882 ปริมาณ
2%
11-12
$3,765 ปริมาณ
2%
13-14
$4,747 ปริมาณ
1%
15-16
$25,181 ปริมาณ
2%
>16
$9,304 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays in Starship V3 development and testing have pushed the first 2026 flight to mid-May, limiting early momentum after the October 2025 orbital attempt. Traders see this cautious start, combined with ongoing Super Heavy booster refinements and FAA licensing for Florida sites, as key reasons the market assigns over 76 percent implied probability to fewer than seven successful launches reaching space this year. Potential catalysts include the upcoming V3 debut, tower catch demonstrations, and infrastructure buildup at Kennedy Space Center, though historical test timelines and regulatory reviews suggest ramp-up could remain gradual through the second half of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$450,036วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays in Starship V3 development and testing have pushed the first 2026 flight to mid-May, limiting early momentum after the October 2025 orbital attempt. Traders see this cautious start, combined with ongoing Super Heavy booster refinements and FAA licensing for Florida sites, as key reasons the market assigns over 76 percent implied probability to fewer than seven successful launches reaching space this year. Potential catalysts include the upcoming V3 debut, tower catch demonstrations, and infrastructure buildup at Kennedy Space Center, though historical test timelines and regulatory reviews suggest ramp-up could remain gradual through the second half of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$450,036วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent delays in Starship V3 development and testing have pushed the first 2026 flight to mid-May, limiting early momentum after the October 2025 orbital attempt. Traders see this cautious start, combined with ongoing Super Heavy booster refinements and FAA licensing for Florida sites, as key reasons the market assigns over 76 percent implied probability to fewer than seven successful launches reaching space this year. Potential catalysts include the upcoming V3 debut, tower catch demonstrations, and infrastructure buildup at Kennedy Space Center, though historical test timelines and regulatory reviews suggest ramp-up could remain gradual through the second half of 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย