The closely matched probabilities for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflect uncertainty ahead of the preliminary data release scheduled for May 19, with consensus forecasts centering on 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Recent economist surveys highlight firm exports and resilient private consumption as key supports, while capital investment and public spending have also contributed to a second consecutive quarter of positive growth following the modest rebound in Q4 2025. Market-implied odds favor the 0.3–0.5% band due to moderating momentum from prior quarters and limited near-term fallout from elevated energy prices, though upside risks from stronger-than-expected external demand could shift sentiment toward the 0.6–0.8% range if the data exceeds median projections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJapan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.3–0.5% 50.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
3%
0.0–0.2%
4%
0.3–0.5%
51%
0.6–0.8%
41%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 50.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,317 ปริมาณ
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,404 ปริมาณ
3%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 ปริมาณ
4%
0.3–0.5%
$911 ปริมาณ
51%
0.6–0.8%
$586 ปริมาณ
41%
0.9–1.1%
$792 ปริมาณ
31%
1.2%+
$3,375 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlThe closely matched probabilities for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflect uncertainty ahead of the preliminary data release scheduled for May 19, with consensus forecasts centering on 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Recent economist surveys highlight firm exports and resilient private consumption as key supports, while capital investment and public spending have also contributed to a second consecutive quarter of positive growth following the modest rebound in Q4 2025. Market-implied odds favor the 0.3–0.5% band due to moderating momentum from prior quarters and limited near-term fallout from elevated energy prices, though upside risks from stronger-than-expected external demand could shift sentiment toward the 0.6–0.8% range if the data exceeds median projections.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,743วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlThe closely matched probabilities for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflect uncertainty ahead of the preliminary data release scheduled for May 19, with consensus forecasts centering on 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Recent economist surveys highlight firm exports and resilient private consumption as key supports, while capital investment and public spending have also contributed to a second consecutive quarter of positive growth following the modest rebound in Q4 2025. Market-implied odds favor the 0.3–0.5% band due to moderating momentum from prior quarters and limited near-term fallout from elevated energy prices, though upside risks from stronger-than-expected external demand could shift sentiment toward the 0.6–0.8% range if the data exceeds median projections.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,743วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched probabilities for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflect uncertainty ahead of the preliminary data release scheduled for May 19, with consensus forecasts centering on 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Recent economist surveys highlight firm exports and resilient private consumption as key supports, while capital investment and public spending have also contributed to a second consecutive quarter of positive growth following the modest rebound in Q4 2025. Market-implied odds favor the 0.3–0.5% band due to moderating momentum from prior quarters and limited near-term fallout from elevated energy prices, though upside risks from stronger-than-expected external demand could shift sentiment toward the 0.6–0.8% range if the data exceeds median projections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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