Recent economic indicators and private-sector consensus forecasts have positioned moderate growth as the most probable outcome for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds showing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter band leading at 50.6% and the 0.6–0.8% range close behind at 41.9%. Firm exports, resilient personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, and positive readings from retail sales and industrial production have underpinned trader expectations of a second consecutive expansion after Q4 2025. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around the pace of recovery amid lingering effects from prior inflation pressures, with the Cabinet Office's first preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final data print.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJapan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.3–0.5% 50.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
3%
0.0–0.2%
3%
0.3–0.5%
51%
0.6–0.8%
41%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 50.6%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,317 ปริมาณ
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,404 ปริมาณ
3%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 ปริมาณ
3%
0.3–0.5%
$911 ปริมาณ
51%
0.6–0.8%
$586 ปริมาณ
41%
0.9–1.1%
$792 ปริมาณ
31%
1.2%+
$3,375 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economic indicators and private-sector consensus forecasts have positioned moderate growth as the most probable outcome for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds showing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter band leading at 50.6% and the 0.6–0.8% range close behind at 41.9%. Firm exports, resilient personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, and positive readings from retail sales and industrial production have underpinned trader expectations of a second consecutive expansion after Q4 2025. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around the pace of recovery amid lingering effects from prior inflation pressures, with the Cabinet Office's first preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final data print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,743วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economic indicators and private-sector consensus forecasts have positioned moderate growth as the most probable outcome for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds showing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter band leading at 50.6% and the 0.6–0.8% range close behind at 41.9%. Firm exports, resilient personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, and positive readings from retail sales and industrial production have underpinned trader expectations of a second consecutive expansion after Q4 2025. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around the pace of recovery amid lingering effects from prior inflation pressures, with the Cabinet Office's first preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final data print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,743วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent economic indicators and private-sector consensus forecasts have positioned moderate growth as the most probable outcome for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds showing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-on-quarter band leading at 50.6% and the 0.6–0.8% range close behind at 41.9%. Firm exports, resilient personal consumption supported by wage gains and energy subsidies, and positive readings from retail sales and industrial production have underpinned trader expectations of a second consecutive expansion after Q4 2025. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around the pace of recovery amid lingering effects from prior inflation pressures, with the Cabinet Office's first preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key near-term catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final data print.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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