Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a commanding supermajority in the February 2026 general election after dissolving the lower house in January, leaving the fragmented opposition without leverage for an early contest. Recent collapse of the Centrist Reform Alliance in September has further weakened rivals ahead of local elections and the 2027 LDP leadership vote. With the current four-year term running into 2030 and attention focused on cabinet and party reshuffles plus an extraordinary Diet session in October, traders see little incentive for another dissolution this year. Only an abrupt approval-rating collapse, major scandal, or unforeseen economic shock could realistically alter the timeline before year-end.