Chloé Fauchon of the Parti Québécois leads the Louis-Hébert race in trader pricing at 60.5 percent, ahead of CAQ candidate Marc-Antoine Bernier at 42.5 percent and lower probabilities for Liberal Richard Bélanger, Québec solidaire’s Anne-Sophie Roy, and Conservative Marcos Archambault. The open seat, vacated by longtime CAQ incumbent Geneviève Guilbault who chose not to seek re-election, features first-past-the-post voting on October 5, 2026, after the writs were issued August 27. Provincial polling shows the PQ holding a narrow lead, with the CAQ recovering modestly in recent surveys, creating a competitive dynamic in this Capitale-Nationale riding where both parties have targeted francophone voters on housing, education, and language issues. The elevated odds for several unnamed or lower-profile contenders reflect uncertainty typical early in a short 39-day campaign.