The upcoming Vaimauga No. 3 by-election on 18 September 2026 features a crowded field of more than twenty candidates, including independents and nominees from FAST and HRPP, which has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds. The contest follows an Electoral Court ruling that voided the May 2026 result on grounds of corrupt practices by the prior winner and petitioner, reopening the seat under Samoa’s party-hopping rules. Fragmented support across multiple contenders, combined with the constituency’s recent swings between parties and independents, sustains the close trader consensus. Late withdrawals, formal endorsements by major parties, or shifts in local turnout patterns could consolidate votes and widen gaps among the leading names before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 46%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 45%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 45%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 43%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo
46%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia
45%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo
45%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni
43%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 46%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 45%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 45%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 43%
Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo
46%
Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia
45%
Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo
45%
Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni
43%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming Vaimauga No. 3 by-election on 18 September 2026 features a crowded field of more than twenty candidates, including independents and nominees from FAST and HRPP, which has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds. The contest follows an Electoral Court ruling that voided the May 2026 result on grounds of corrupt practices by the prior winner and petitioner, reopening the seat under Samoa’s party-hopping rules. Fragmented support across multiple contenders, combined with the constituency’s recent swings between parties and independents, sustains the close trader consensus. Late withdrawals, formal endorsements by major parties, or shifts in local turnout patterns could consolidate votes and widen gaps among the leading names before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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