Forecast models from the Korea Meteorological Administration and others indicate a most likely overnight low near 24°C for Busan on August 26, aligning with the market's leading 41% implied probability, though the near-even split with 22°C-or-below at 39% reflects uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling. Late-August conditions feature high humidity and variable cloud cover under the East Asian summer monsoon regime, which can suppress temperature drops by limiting clear-sky heat loss or allow sharper declines with clearer skies and lighter winds. Historical averages place Busan’s minimums around 23–25°C this time of year, but short-term shifts in steering patterns or localized sea-breeze effects introduce divergence across ensembles. Traders appear focused on the next model updates and any changes in precipitation probability ahead of the 24-hour observation window.