The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 ปริมาณ
$63,971 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 ปริมาณ
$63,971 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,541 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$2,325 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$2,408 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$2,288 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$3,899 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$5,193 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$12,287 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$8,673 ปริมาณ
100%
26°C
$12,015 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$8,229 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,971วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,971วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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