Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C for May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions under stable high-pressure influence from the South China Sea, where nighttime lows normally range 24–27°C. This verified station data has driven the market-implied odds to 99.9% for the 25°C outcome, as traders incorporate confirmed measurements rather than forecasts into their assessments. The near-certain positioning reflects the absence of unusual atmospheric cooling or rapid radiative heat loss that could have produced a lower reading. A realistic challenge would require an improbable post-dawn revision to the official record or localized microclimate effects at the primary monitoring site, though such shifts remain statistically rare given the Observatory’s standardized protocols.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$61,761 ปริมาณ
$61,761 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$61,761 ปริมาณ
$61,761 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,473 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$2,286 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$2,298 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$2,278 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$3,651 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$5,061 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$12,238 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$8,636 ปริมาณ
100%
26°C
$12,002 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$7,750 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,089 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C for May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions under stable high-pressure influence from the South China Sea, where nighttime lows normally range 24–27°C. This verified station data has driven the market-implied odds to 99.9% for the 25°C outcome, as traders incorporate confirmed measurements rather than forecasts into their assessments. The near-certain positioning reflects the absence of unusual atmospheric cooling or rapid radiative heat loss that could have produced a lower reading. A realistic challenge would require an improbable post-dawn revision to the official record or localized microclimate effects at the primary monitoring site, though such shifts remain statistically rare given the Observatory’s standardized protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,761วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C for May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions under stable high-pressure influence from the South China Sea, where nighttime lows normally range 24–27°C. This verified station data has driven the market-implied odds to 99.9% for the 25°C outcome, as traders incorporate confirmed measurements rather than forecasts into their assessments. The near-certain positioning reflects the absence of unusual atmospheric cooling or rapid radiative heat loss that could have produced a lower reading. A realistic challenge would require an improbable post-dawn revision to the official record or localized microclimate effects at the primary monitoring site, though such shifts remain statistically rare given the Observatory’s standardized protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,761วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C for May 15, aligning with typical mid-May subtropical conditions under stable high-pressure influence from the South China Sea, where nighttime lows normally range 24–27°C. This verified station data has driven the market-implied odds to 99.9% for the 25°C outcome, as traders incorporate confirmed measurements rather than forecasts into their assessments. The near-certain positioning reflects the absence of unusual atmospheric cooling or rapid radiative heat loss that could have produced a lower reading. A realistic challenge would require an improbable post-dawn revision to the official record or localized microclimate effects at the primary monitoring site, though such shifts remain statistically rare given the Observatory’s standardized protocols.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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