Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths as of mid-May 2026, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against an emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO surveillance reports indicate mostly unconfirmed cases clustered in two health zones near the Uganda border, with only 13 laboratory positives so far and preliminary genomic data suggesting a non-Zaire strain. Rapid case detection, combined with DRC’s experience containing prior outbreaks through contact tracing and ring vaccination, has kept transmission contained despite regional insecurity. Historical patterns show international emergencies typically require sustained cross-border spread exceeding hundreds of confirmed cases over months. While population movement and security gaps could accelerate transmission, current epidemiological indicators and upcoming WHO risk assessments point to low likelihood of meeting formal PHEIC thresholds within the six-week window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วEbola emergency by June 30?
Ebola emergency by June 30?
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths as of mid-May 2026, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against an emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO surveillance reports indicate mostly unconfirmed cases clustered in two health zones near the Uganda border, with only 13 laboratory positives so far and preliminary genomic data suggesting a non-Zaire strain. Rapid case detection, combined with DRC’s experience containing prior outbreaks through contact tracing and ring vaccination, has kept transmission contained despite regional insecurity. Historical patterns show international emergencies typically require sustained cross-border spread exceeding hundreds of confirmed cases over months. While population movement and security gaps could accelerate transmission, current epidemiological indicators and upcoming WHO risk assessments point to low likelihood of meeting formal PHEIC thresholds within the six-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,116วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths as of mid-May 2026, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against an emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO surveillance reports indicate mostly unconfirmed cases clustered in two health zones near the Uganda border, with only 13 laboratory positives so far and preliminary genomic data suggesting a non-Zaire strain. Rapid case detection, combined with DRC’s experience containing prior outbreaks through contact tracing and ring vaccination, has kept transmission contained despite regional insecurity. Historical patterns show international emergencies typically require sustained cross-border spread exceeding hundreds of confirmed cases over months. While population movement and security gaps could accelerate transmission, current epidemiological indicators and upcoming WHO risk assessments point to low likelihood of meeting formal PHEIC thresholds within the six-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares Ebola a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,127วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths as of mid-May 2026, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against an emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO surveillance reports indicate mostly unconfirmed cases clustered in two health zones near the Uganda border, with only 13 laboratory positives so far and preliminary genomic data suggesting a non-Zaire strain. Rapid case detection, combined with DRC’s experience containing prior outbreaks through contact tracing and ring vaccination, has kept transmission contained despite regional insecurity. Historical patterns show international emergencies typically require sustained cross-border spread exceeding hundreds of confirmed cases over months. While population movement and security gaps could accelerate transmission, current epidemiological indicators and upcoming WHO risk assessments point to low likelihood of meeting formal PHEIC thresholds within the six-week window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย