Current forecasts from PAGASA indicate partly cloudy to cloudy skies over Manila on May 17, with isolated afternoon rain showers or thunderstorms expected under the influence of a weakening low-pressure system and building high-pressure ridge. These conditions limit peak solar heating, keeping the daily maximum most likely near 34°C, though brief clear periods could allow brief warming to 35°C depending on the exact timing of convective activity. May climatology supports highs averaging 33–36°C, with recent model runs showing minimal deviation from this range and no strong signals for extreme intensification. Traders appear to weigh the balance between cloud cover reducing insolation and potential gaps in precipitation allowing slightly higher readings, resulting in closely matched implied probabilities for the two leading outcomes.