**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13. Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 13?
16°C or below 100%
26°C or higher 93%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 13, 2026
16°C or below
100%
17°C
40%
18°C
29%
19°C
27%
20°C
22%
21°C
39%
22°C
6%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C or higher
93%
16°C or below 100%
26°C or higher 93%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 13, 2026
16°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
100%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
18°C
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
19°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
22°C
$20 ปริมาณ
6%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
26°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13.
Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13.
Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13. Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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