Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show moderate uncertainty in the timing and strength of a southerly change expected to reach Wellington on September 16, creating a tight spread in projected overnight minimums around 10–12 °C. Northerly flow ahead of the front supports milder conditions with limited radiative cooling, while an earlier or stronger southerly shift could enhance advection of cooler air and increase the chance of readings near or below 9 °C. Current trader consensus, with 12 °C at 30 % implied probability and 7 °C or below at 28.5 %, reflects this model divergence and the influence of variable cloud cover on minimum temperatures. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService briefings over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 16?
7°C or below 57%
17°C or higher 57%
14°C 40%
12°C 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
57%
8°C
18%
9°C
18%
10°C
22%
11°C
28%
12°C
30%
13°C
23%
14°C
40%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
57%
7°C or below 57%
17°C or higher 57%
14°C 40%
12°C 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 16, 2026
7°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
57%
8°C
$32 ปริมาณ
18%
9°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
10°C
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
12°C
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
13°C
$125 ปริมาณ
23%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
16°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show moderate uncertainty in the timing and strength of a southerly change expected to reach Wellington on September 16, creating a tight spread in projected overnight minimums around 10–12 °C. Northerly flow ahead of the front supports milder conditions with limited radiative cooling, while an earlier or stronger southerly shift could enhance advection of cooler air and increase the chance of readings near or below 9 °C. Current trader consensus, with 12 °C at 30 % implied probability and 7 °C or below at 28.5 %, reflects this model divergence and the influence of variable cloud cover on minimum temperatures. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService briefings over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$157วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show moderate uncertainty in the timing and strength of a southerly change expected to reach Wellington on September 16, creating a tight spread in projected overnight minimums around 10–12 °C. Northerly flow ahead of the front supports milder conditions with limited radiative cooling, while an earlier or stronger southerly shift could enhance advection of cooler air and increase the chance of readings near or below 9 °C. Current trader consensus, with 12 °C at 30 % implied probability and 7 °C or below at 28.5 %, reflects this model divergence and the influence of variable cloud cover on minimum temperatures. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService briefings over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$157วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and international ensembles show moderate uncertainty in the timing and strength of a southerly change expected to reach Wellington on September 16, creating a tight spread in projected overnight minimums around 10–12 °C. Northerly flow ahead of the front supports milder conditions with limited radiative cooling, while an earlier or stronger southerly shift could enhance advection of cooler air and increase the chance of readings near or below 9 °C. Current trader consensus, with 12 °C at 30 % implied probability and 7 °C or below at 28.5 %, reflects this model divergence and the influence of variable cloud cover on minimum temperatures. Updated high-resolution runs and MetService briefings over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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