**Recent polling averages place the SPD at around 29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, positioning the party for a projected seat range of 22-25.** This reflects consistent survey results from INSA and Infratest dimap through early-to-mid August 2026, where the SPD trails the leading AfD (35-36%) but remains well ahead of The Left (11%), CDU (9-10%), and smaller parties. The implied probability concentrates on this band because the state's mixed-member proportional system, combined with the 5% threshold and expected overhang/leveling adjustments for 71 total seats, typically converts a low-30s vote share into low-to-mid 20s seats. SPD support has stabilized after earlier declines, aided by state-level incumbency under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and limited recent volatility in voter intentions. Traders appear to weigh the short campaign window—roughly one month until election day—alongside risks such as turnout shifts or minor party threshold crossings that could modestly alter the final distribution. Current consensus aligns closely with these latest statewide surveys rather than national or historical benchmarks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว22-25 60%
26-29 34%
30-33 4.8%
34+ 3.8%
$12,322 ปริมาณ
$12,322 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<18
1%
18-21
2%
22-25
60%
26-29
34%
30-33
5%
34+
4%
22-25 60%
26-29 34%
30-33 4.8%
34+ 3.8%
$12,322 ปริมาณ
$12,322 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<18
$936 ปริมาณ
1%
18-21
$516 ปริมาณ
2%
22-25
$6,537 ปริมาณ
60%
26-29
$1,815 ปริมาณ
34%
30-33
$1,844 ปริมาณ
5%
34+
$675 ปริมาณ
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the SPD at around 29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, positioning the party for a projected seat range of 22-25.** This reflects consistent survey results from INSA and Infratest dimap through early-to-mid August 2026, where the SPD trails the leading AfD (35-36%) but remains well ahead of The Left (11%), CDU (9-10%), and smaller parties.
The implied probability concentrates on this band because the state's mixed-member proportional system, combined with the 5% threshold and expected overhang/leveling adjustments for 71 total seats, typically converts a low-30s vote share into low-to-mid 20s seats. SPD support has stabilized after earlier declines, aided by state-level incumbency under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and limited recent volatility in voter intentions.
Traders appear to weigh the short campaign window—roughly one month until election day—alongside risks such as turnout shifts or minor party threshold crossings that could modestly alter the final distribution. Current consensus aligns closely with these latest statewide surveys rather than national or historical benchmarks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,322วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the SPD at around 29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, positioning the party for a projected seat range of 22-25.** This reflects consistent survey results from INSA and Infratest dimap through early-to-mid August 2026, where the SPD trails the leading AfD (35-36%) but remains well ahead of The Left (11%), CDU (9-10%), and smaller parties.
The implied probability concentrates on this band because the state's mixed-member proportional system, combined with the 5% threshold and expected overhang/leveling adjustments for 71 total seats, typically converts a low-30s vote share into low-to-mid 20s seats. SPD support has stabilized after earlier declines, aided by state-level incumbency under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and limited recent volatility in voter intentions.
Traders appear to weigh the short campaign window—roughly one month until election day—alongside risks such as turnout shifts or minor party threshold crossings that could modestly alter the final distribution. Current consensus aligns closely with these latest statewide surveys rather than national or historical benchmarks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,322วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages place the SPD at around 29% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, positioning the party for a projected seat range of 22-25.** This reflects consistent survey results from INSA and Infratest dimap through early-to-mid August 2026, where the SPD trails the leading AfD (35-36%) but remains well ahead of The Left (11%), CDU (9-10%), and smaller parties. The implied probability concentrates on this band because the state's mixed-member proportional system, combined with the 5% threshold and expected overhang/leveling adjustments for 71 total seats, typically converts a low-30s vote share into low-to-mid 20s seats. SPD support has stabilized after earlier declines, aided by state-level incumbency under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and limited recent volatility in voter intentions. Traders appear to weigh the short campaign window—roughly one month until election day—alongside risks such as turnout shifts or minor party threshold crossings that could modestly alter the final distribution. Current consensus aligns closely with these latest statewide surveys rather than national or historical benchmarks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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