Recent polling shows the AfD hovering between 16% and 19% in Berlin, placing it in a tight four-way contest with the Linke, CDU, and Greens ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election. This volatility, including one July INSA survey where the AfD briefly led at 19%, sustains trader focus on the 26-28 and 32-34 seat brackets as the most likely outcomes. Parallel eastern state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD polls far stronger, add momentum considerations, while Berlin’s fragmented vote and 5% threshold heighten uncertainty over final seat distribution and potential coalition effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว26-28 29%
32-34 23%
29-31 19%
35+ 10.6%
$12,649 ปริมาณ
$12,649 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
4%
20-22
8%
23-25
9%
26-28
29%
29-31
18%
32-34
23%
35+
11%
26-28 29%
32-34 23%
29-31 19%
35+ 10.6%
$12,649 ปริมาณ
$12,649 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$1,025 ปริมาณ
4%
20-22
$3,976 ปริมาณ
8%
23-25
$1,347 ปริมาณ
9%
26-28
$2,054 ปริมาณ
29%
29-31
$424 ปริมาณ
18%
32-34
$286 ปริมาณ
23%
35+
$3,537 ปริมาณ
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling shows the AfD hovering between 16% and 19% in Berlin, placing it in a tight four-way contest with the Linke, CDU, and Greens ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election. This volatility, including one July INSA survey where the AfD briefly led at 19%, sustains trader focus on the 26-28 and 32-34 seat brackets as the most likely outcomes. Parallel eastern state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD polls far stronger, add momentum considerations, while Berlin’s fragmented vote and 5% threshold heighten uncertainty over final seat distribution and potential coalition effects.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,649วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling shows the AfD hovering between 16% and 19% in Berlin, placing it in a tight four-way contest with the Linke, CDU, and Greens ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election. This volatility, including one July INSA survey where the AfD briefly led at 19%, sustains trader focus on the 26-28 and 32-34 seat brackets as the most likely outcomes. Parallel eastern state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD polls far stronger, add momentum considerations, while Berlin’s fragmented vote and 5% threshold heighten uncertainty over final seat distribution and potential coalition effects.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,649วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the AfD hovering between 16% and 19% in Berlin, placing it in a tight four-way contest with the Linke, CDU, and Greens ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election. This volatility, including one July INSA survey where the AfD briefly led at 19%, sustains trader focus on the 26-28 and 32-34 seat brackets as the most likely outcomes. Parallel eastern state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the AfD polls far stronger, add momentum considerations, while Berlin’s fragmented vote and 5% threshold heighten uncertainty over final seat distribution and potential coalition effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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