Moonshot holds a narrow lead at 52.5% in market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, while a broad field clusters near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over rapid capability shifts. Recent releases and benchmarks from Moonshot, Mistral, MiniMax, and DeepSeek have highlighted gains in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with large language models, tightening competition among Chinese and Western labs. Lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta suggest traders view their agent progress as less differentiated relative to specialized players. Key swing factors include any late-month model updates, public agent evaluations, or developer ecosystem traction before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMoonshot 63%
Google 48%
DeepSeek 48%
MiniMax 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
60%
48%
DeepSeek
48%
MiniMax
27%
Mistral
25%
Alibaba
24%
ByteDance
23%
Baidu
23%
SpaceXAI
22%
Anthropic
22%
Xiaomi
22%
Z.ai
20%
OpenAI
15%
Nvidia
14%
Meta
3%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 63%
Google 48%
DeepSeek 48%
MiniMax 27%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$209 ปริมาณ
60%
$20 ปริมาณ
48%
DeepSeek
$20 ปริมาณ
48%
MiniMax
$130 ปริมาณ
27%
Mistral
$93 ปริมาณ
25%
Alibaba
$82 ปริมาณ
24%
ByteDance
$91 ปริมาณ
23%
Baidu
$141 ปริมาณ
23%
SpaceXAI
$78 ปริมาณ
22%
Anthropic
$171 ปริมาณ
22%
Xiaomi
$126 ปริมาณ
22%
Z.ai
$20 ปริมาณ
20%
OpenAI
$30 ปริมาณ
15%
Nvidia
$112 ปริมาณ
14%
Meta
$77 ปริมาณ
3%
Amazon
$135 ปริมาณ
1%
Microsoft
$115 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$34 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds a narrow lead at 52.5% in market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, while a broad field clusters near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over rapid capability shifts. Recent releases and benchmarks from Moonshot, Mistral, MiniMax, and DeepSeek have highlighted gains in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with large language models, tightening competition among Chinese and Western labs. Lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta suggest traders view their agent progress as less differentiated relative to specialized players. Key swing factors include any late-month model updates, public agent evaluations, or developer ecosystem traction before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,684วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot holds a narrow lead at 52.5% in market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, while a broad field clusters near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over rapid capability shifts. Recent releases and benchmarks from Moonshot, Mistral, MiniMax, and DeepSeek have highlighted gains in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with large language models, tightening competition among Chinese and Western labs. Lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta suggest traders view their agent progress as less differentiated relative to specialized players. Key swing factors include any late-month model updates, public agent evaluations, or developer ecosystem traction before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,684วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot holds a narrow lead at 52.5% in market-implied odds for third-best AI agent lab by end of August, while a broad field clusters near 50%, reflecting trader uncertainty over rapid capability shifts. Recent releases and benchmarks from Moonshot, Mistral, MiniMax, and DeepSeek have highlighted gains in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with large language models, tightening competition among Chinese and Western labs. Lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta suggest traders view their agent progress as less differentiated relative to specialized players. Key swing factors include any late-month model updates, public agent evaluations, or developer ecosystem traction before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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